I think DARPA mapped out these relationships a while back. There is a program developed there several years ago and pushed out during Covid which determines drug shortage and dependencies in China. It is their Pharmacy in a Box project which they've spent more than $100 million. This is at least 5 years ago. You wouldn't know unless you had close contacts into DARPA
Very well put. For the past few years. We have been talking about this in India. But here is the catch, the investments required to come out of the trap are huge and the timelines are long. And the economics always don't work. These are capabilities and scale built over decades by China.
Thank you, I appreciate it! Indeed, the challenge is that China’s advantage isn't just money. It’s a deeply entrenched, multi-decade industrial ecosystem that’s incredibly difficult to replicate quickly. India faces a massive infrastructure and scale gap where the economics rarely justify the immediate risk.
A fine piece, Atlas — the quinine cartel is the right ancestor, and the point that the recipe sits upstream of the patent is the one to keep. The dress rehearsal has already happened, quietly: in 2008, contaminated heparin routed through a Changzhou plant reached American hospital drips, and the FDA counted dozens of deaths before the recall closed. Dependency announces itself first as an accident, long before anyone wields it as an instrument. The BIOSECURE grandfather clause running to 2032 amounts to urgency on a schedule. Molecules do not read grandfather clauses.
Glad it was of use, Atlas. I'll be watching what the FDA's proposed rule turns up — the first honest map of that chain should make your quinine analogy read even better.
I think DARPA mapped out these relationships a while back. There is a program developed there several years ago and pushed out during Covid which determines drug shortage and dependencies in China. It is their Pharmacy in a Box project which they've spent more than $100 million. This is at least 5 years ago. You wouldn't know unless you had close contacts into DARPA
Thank you for this, great addition!
Very well put. For the past few years. We have been talking about this in India. But here is the catch, the investments required to come out of the trap are huge and the timelines are long. And the economics always don't work. These are capabilities and scale built over decades by China.
Thank you, I appreciate it! Indeed, the challenge is that China’s advantage isn't just money. It’s a deeply entrenched, multi-decade industrial ecosystem that’s incredibly difficult to replicate quickly. India faces a massive infrastructure and scale gap where the economics rarely justify the immediate risk.
Really well written, well researched. Always love learning about history, and that bit about the Dutch Quinine Cartel is awesome. Thank you!
Thank you Gerar, I really appreciate it.
Excellent analysis!
Thank you for the kind words!
A fine piece, Atlas — the quinine cartel is the right ancestor, and the point that the recipe sits upstream of the patent is the one to keep. The dress rehearsal has already happened, quietly: in 2008, contaminated heparin routed through a Changzhou plant reached American hospital drips, and the FDA counted dozens of deaths before the recall closed. Dependency announces itself first as an accident, long before anyone wields it as an instrument. The BIOSECURE grandfather clause running to 2032 amounts to urgency on a schedule. Molecules do not read grandfather clauses.
Thank you Nazem, that's a great addition!
Glad it was of use, Atlas. I'll be watching what the FDA's proposed rule turns up — the first honest map of that chain should make your quinine analogy read even better.
Very well done. Your research and reporting are impressive.
Thank you, that means a lot!
Very critical for many people on the internet 😉 I think I see the Chinese design