A Strong piece, especially the way you tie geography, energy, and history into a single frame. It made for an interesting read. There’s a clear throughline here around basin control and the shift from containment to integration.
One layer that adds complexity is how the internal circulation of that fuel plays out once it enters Cuba. The piece frames supply access as the key lever, but the downstream question is how those flows are mediated locally. If the private sector can operate with relative autonomy, the dynamic you describe compounds over time. If not, and distribution remains partially intermediated, the effects may be slower and less linear than the basin model suggests. It doesn’t break the thesis, but it does make the end state more path-dependent than it first appears. It would be an interesting trend to watch, for sure. Thanks for sharing this.
Thank you for your comment. That’s an interesting take, and definitely something worth watching. The U.S. still hasn’t given the Sea Horse the green light, yet it has allowed another Russian vessel to deliver barrels. That may suggest Washington is trying to avoid a direct naval confrontation. Definitely one to keep an eye on.
A Strong piece, especially the way you tie geography, energy, and history into a single frame. It made for an interesting read. There’s a clear throughline here around basin control and the shift from containment to integration.
One layer that adds complexity is how the internal circulation of that fuel plays out once it enters Cuba. The piece frames supply access as the key lever, but the downstream question is how those flows are mediated locally. If the private sector can operate with relative autonomy, the dynamic you describe compounds over time. If not, and distribution remains partially intermediated, the effects may be slower and less linear than the basin model suggests. It doesn’t break the thesis, but it does make the end state more path-dependent than it first appears. It would be an interesting trend to watch, for sure. Thanks for sharing this.
Thank you for your comment. That’s an interesting take, and definitely something worth watching. The U.S. still hasn’t given the Sea Horse the green light, yet it has allowed another Russian vessel to deliver barrels. That may suggest Washington is trying to avoid a direct naval confrontation. Definitely one to keep an eye on.